Anytime Touchdowns
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#6 - D. Henry: O 2+ TDs (Tail best line)
Derrick Henry continues to own one of the best scoring roles in football.
• Tennessee forces the 2nd-most running back attempts
• No running back gets more red-zone carries than Henry
• Averaging 2 touchdowns per game through the first 3 weeks, including 2 last week
Baltimore enters as a huge home favorite, setting Henry up for another game with plenty of rushing and goal-line opportunities.
#5 - J. Downs (Tail best line)
Josh Downs hasn't found the end zone yet, but the opportunities continue to pile up.
• Has gone over 70 receiving yards in 2 straight games
• Owns 30.4% of the team's targets with Pierce off the field
• Already ranks top-10 among wide receivers in red-zone targets
Washington allows a league-high 9.7% touchdown rate to opposing receivers, making this a strong spot for Downs to finally turn that volume into six points.
#4 - T. Warren (Tail best line)
Tyler Warren gets arguably the best matchup on the board for a tight end to find the end zone.
• Washington allows a league-high 25% touchdown rate to tight ends
• Caught 8 of 9 targets last week and owns 23.4% of the team's targets
• Plays 87% of the team's dropbacks and leads the team with a 38.2% target share on play action
OddsJam flagged Warren as one of the biggest +EV touchdown numbers on the board, and his combination of usage and matchup makes it easy to see why.
#3 - B. Robinson (Tail best line)
Bijan Robinson enters this matchup coming off his biggest game of the young season.
• Just produced 213 total yards and 2 touchdowns against Green Bay
• Only Jahmyr Gibbs gets more touches than Bijan
• New Orleans has allowed the 4th-most yards and is tied for the 3rd-most touchdowns to running backs
Bijan also gets a full 10 days of rest coming off Thursday night, putting Atlanta's workhorse in another strong scoring spot.
#2 - A. Jones (Tail best line)
Aaron Jones has taken complete control of Minnesota's backfield with Jordan Mason sidelined.
• Owns 80%+ of the backfield touches in each of the past 2 games without Mason
• Saw 6 targets last week, trailing only Jordan Addison
• Miami has allowed a league-high 7 touchdowns to running backs, including 4 through the air
Jones' combination of rushing and receiving work gives him multiple scoring paths against a defense that's been giving opposing backfields opportunities all season.
#1 - J. Gibbs (Tail best line)
Jahmyr Gibbs simply hasn't stopped finding the end zone.
• Has scored in all 3 games this season with 6 total touchdowns
• Gets more overall red-zone touches than any other running back
• Carolina has allowed the most yards and is tied for the 3rd-most touchdowns to running backs
Gibbs' red-zone role already makes him dangerous, and OddsJam's Sharp Money tool caught early action on this scoring line. The matchup against Carolina only strengthens the case.
That’s the list. Week 4 is loaded with touchdown spots, and we’ve got six players ready to find the end zone across the slate.
See you out there,
-Joe