Anytime Touchdowns
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#6 - D. Henry (Tail best line)
Derrick Henry continues to dominate near the goal line, and Atlanta gives him another favorable touchdown matchup.
• Leads the NFL with 1.8 touchdowns per game
• Averages 4.3 touches inside the 10-yard line, most among running backs
• Atlanta allows 4 red-zone trips per game, 5th-most in the NFL
Henry has scored in 3 straight games, and Atlanta just surrendered 2 touchdowns to Alvin Kamara. His goal-line workload makes him one of the strongest touchdown candidates on the slate.
#5 - P. Nacua (Tail best line)
Puka Nacua gets a Buffalo defense that's been extremely vulnerable to wide receiver touchdowns.
• Buffalo allows 1.5 touchdowns per game to wide receivers, 2nd-most in the NFL
• Owns a 26.6% target share, ranking 10th among wide receivers
• Buffalo allows 4 red-zone trips per game, tied for 5th-most
OddsJam is showing a strong +EV edge on Nacua, and with Los Angeles carrying a 28.8-point implied team total, his elite target volume gives him a strong opportunity to find the end zone.
#4 - K. Williams (Tail best line)
Kyren Williams continues to get valuable goal-line opportunities and draws one of the league's best matchups for running back touchdowns.
• Buffalo allows 1.5 touchdowns per game to running backs, 4th-most in the NFL
• Williams has scored in 3 of 4 games this season
• Averages 2.3 touches inside the 10-yard line, 8th-most among running backs
Buffalo also allows 4 red-zone trips per game, giving Williams plenty of opportunities to extend his touchdown production.
#3 - T. McBride (Tail best line)
Trey McBride gets an outstanding matchup against a Detroit defense that's struggled to keep tight ends out of the end zone.
• Detroit allows 1.5 touchdowns per game to tight ends, most in the NFL
• Leads all tight ends with 2.3 red-zone touches per game inside the 20
• Owns a 30.3% target share, 2nd-highest among tight ends
Detroit also allows 31.8 points per game and 4.3 red-zone trips, creating an ideal scoring environment for one of the league's most heavily targeted tight ends.
#2 - A. St. Brown (Tail best line)
Amon-Ra St. Brown gets a matchup that sets up perfectly for his massive red-zone role.
• Arizona allows 2 touchdowns per game to wide receivers, most in the NFL
• Leads all wide receivers with 3 red-zone touches per game inside the 20
• Owns a 28.6% target share, ranking 6th among wide receivers
Detroit carries a 30-point implied team total, and OddsJam's Sharp Money tool is picking up action on St. Brown. His elite red-zone usage against the league's most vulnerable defense to WR touchdowns makes him a prime scoring candidate.
#1 - A. Jones (Tail best line)
Aaron Jones has only scored once this season, but this matchup against New Orleans is about as good as it gets.
• New Orleans allows an NFL-high 2.3 touchdowns per game to running backs
• Also allows a league-high 4.8 red-zone trips and 32 points per game
• Atlanta's backfield just combined for 207 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Saints on Monday night
With Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison both questionable, Jones could also see additional receiving opportunities, giving him multiple ways to find the end zone.
That’s the list. Week 5 is loaded with touchdown opportunities, and we’ve got six players ready to find the end zone across the Sunday slate.
See you out there,
-Joe