Anytime Touchdowns
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#6 - J. Williams (Tail best line)
Javonte Williams has been one of the NFL's most productive touchdown scorers, and Green Bay gives him another favorable matchup to keep rolling.
• Ranks 3rd among RBs with 7 total touchdowns, averaging 1.4 per game
• Green Bay allows 1.8 touchdowns per game to running backs, 2nd-most in the NFL
• Averages 4.6 touches inside the 20 and 3 touches inside the 10 per game, both top-5 among RBs
Williams has scored in three straight games, and OddsJam is showing a strong +EV edge on his touchdown number. With that kind of goal-line workload against a defense struggling to stop opposing backs, he's in an excellent position to extend the streak.
#5 - C. Watson (Tail best line)
Christian Watson has become one of Green Bay's most reliable scoring threats and draws a Dallas defense that's giving up plenty of big plays.
• Ranks 2nd among WRs with 6 touchdowns, scoring in 4 of 5 games
• Dallas allows 4.2 red-zone trips per game, 3rd-most in the NFL
• Allows a 12.2% explosive-play rate, 2nd-highest in the league
Green Bay carries a 27.5-point implied team total, while Dallas allows 2 passing touchdowns per game. Watson's consistent scoring production and big-play ability give him multiple ways to find the end zone.
#4 - D. Adams (Tail best line)
Davante Adams gets one of the best touchdown matchups on the slate against an Arizona defense that's been getting torched through the air.
• Arizona allows 2 touchdowns per game to wide receivers, most in the NFL
• Opponents convert 78% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns against Arizona, 3rd-highest in the league
• Adams commands 60% of the Rams' end-zone targets, tied for the NFL lead
Adams has already scored 4 touchdowns this season, including 2 against Buffalo last week. With Arizona allowing a league-high 31.2 points per game, his massive share of end-zone opportunities makes him a prime scoring candidate.
#3 - G. Kittle (Tail best line)
George Kittle has scored 4 touchdowns over his last 4 games and gets a Washington defense that's been especially vulnerable to tight ends.
• Tied for the TE lead with 4 touchdowns, averaging 0.8 per game
• Washington allows 1.4 touchdowns per game to tight ends, 2nd-most in the NFL
• Opponents convert 83% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns against Washington, the highest rate in the league
Washington also allows 29.8 points per game, 3rd-most in the NFL, while San Francisco carries a 29-point implied team total. Kittle's recent scoring production and this favorable matchup give him an excellent opportunity to find the end zone again.
#2 - J. Allen (Tail best line)
Josh Allen continues to be the NFL's most productive rushing touchdown threat at quarterback, and Las Vegas gives him another favorable scoring matchup.
• Leads all quarterbacks with 8 total touchdowns, averaging 1.6 per game
• Leads QBs with 22 designed rushing attempts and ranks 2nd with 1.4 carries per game inside the 10
• Las Vegas allows a 78% red-zone touchdown rate, 3rd-highest in the NFL
Allen has scored in every game this season, and the Raiders have already surrendered two rushing touchdowns, including one to Drake Maye last week. His designed rushing workload gives him a reliable path to another score.
#1 - P. Nacua (Tail best line)
Puka Nacua has scored in back-to-back games and gets an Arizona defense that's been the most vulnerable in football to wide receiver touchdowns.
• Leads the NFL with 1.3 touches per game inside the 10-yard line
• Commands a 33.8% target share, 2nd-highest among wide receivers
• Arizona allows a 12.7% touchdown rate per target to WRs, highest in the NFL
Arizona plays zone on 71% of snaps and allows a league-high 8.7 yards per attempt against it, matching up well with Nacua's production against zone coverage. OddsJam's Sharp Money tool is also picking up action on Nacua, adding to an already strong touchdown outlook.
That’s the list. Week 6 is loaded with touchdown opportunities, and we’ve got six players ready to find the end zone across the Sunday slate.
See you out there,
-Joe