Anytime Touchdowns
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#5 - J. Allen (Tail best line)
Josh Allen continues to dominate near the goal line, and Baltimore's defensive tendencies create another favorable opportunity for him to score.
• Baltimore allows 4.3 rushing attempts per game to QBs, 8th-most in the NFL, while Allen leads all QBs with 23 designed runs
• Allen leads all quarterbacks with 8 rushing touchdowns in just 6 games
• Baltimore faces runs on 57.5% of opponents' red-zone plays, 4th-highest in the NFL, while Allen leads all QBs with 8 carries inside the 10
Baltimore has allowed at least 10 rushing yards to 5 of the 7 quarterbacks it's faced, including a touchdown to Tyler Shough. OddsJam's +EV tool is highlighting value on Allen's touchdown projection, and his unmatched goal-line usage makes him one of the strongest scoring candidates on the slate.
#4 - Z. Flowers (Tail best line)
Zay Flowers gets an excellent matchup against a Buffalo defense that's struggled to keep wide receivers out of the end zone.
• Buffalo allows 1.8 touchdowns per game to WRs, the most in the NFL
• Flowers commands 31% of Baltimore's targets, 3rd-highest among WRs
• Buffalo plays zone on 73.7% of snaps, 7th-highest, while Flowers draws targets on 34.8% of his routes against zone, 2nd-highest among 129 WRs
Flowers has 3 touchdowns this season, including one last week against Cincinnati, and averages 4.1 yards per route run, 2nd-highest among WRs. Buffalo also allows 173.8 receiving yards per game to the position, giving Flowers another excellent opportunity to turn his elite target volume into a touchdown.
#3 - M. Gesicki (Tail best line)
Mike Gesicki has found the end zone in five straight games, and Tennessee's zone-heavy defense creates another favorable matchup for the veteran tight end.
• Tennessee plays zone coverage on 71.8% of snaps, 8th-highest in the NFL
• Gesicki averages 11.4 yards per target against zone, 5th-highest among TEs
• Tennessee allows 233 passing yards per game, 9th-most in the league
Gesicki's five-game touchdown streak speaks for itself, and his efficiency against zone coverage matches up well with Tennessee's defensive approach. That combination gives him a strong opportunity to extend his scoring streak to six games.
#2 - J. Williams (Tail best line)
Javonte Williams has become one of the NFL's most reliable touchdown scorers, and Arizona's struggling defense gives him another excellent opportunity to keep rolling.
• Arizona allows 3.6 touchdowns per game, 2nd-most in the NFL, while Williams leads the league with 9 touchdowns
• Williams commands 79.3% of Dallas' backfield opportunities, while Arizona allows 24.1 RB rushing attempts per game, 9th-most
• Arizona allows a 70.8% red-zone touchdown rate, 7th-highest, while Williams has 17 carries inside the 10, 3rd-most among RBs
Williams has scored in five straight games, and his consistent goal-line involvement makes him difficult to fade against a defense allowing touchdowns at one of the highest rates in football. His combination of volume and scoring efficiency gives him another strong opportunity to find the end zone.
#1 - JSN (Tail best line)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to dominate Seattle's passing attack, and Chicago's vulnerable pass defense creates another excellent scoring opportunity.
• Chicago allows 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 2nd-highest in the NFL, while JSN leads all WRs with a 34.5% target share
• Chicago allows 1.6 passing touchdowns per game, 9th-most, while JSN leads all wide receivers with 8 touchdowns
• Chicago allows a 68.8% red-zone touchdown rate, 9th-highest, while JSN has 11 red-zone targets, 2nd-most among WRs
Smith-Njigba's league-leading target share and touchdown production make him Seattle's clear top scoring threat. OddsJam's Sharp Money tool is also picking up action on his touchdown projection, adding another angle to an already favorable matchup against Chicago.
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That’s the list. Week 8 brings us another loaded slate of Anytime Touchdown picks, and we’ve got five players in great spots to find the end zone on Sunday.
See you out there,
-Joe

