Anytime Touchdowns
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#5 - J. Cook (Tail best line)
James Cook is coming off a huge performance and remains heavily involved around the goal line.
• Ran for 135 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries last week
• Ranks 2nd among running backs in goal-line carries despite Josh Allen's rushing presence
• Buffalo enters as a 7-point favorite against a Chargers team that has struggled
Cook's workload combined with a favorable game script gives him another strong opportunity to find the end zone.
#4 - T. McMillan (Tail best line)
Tet McMillan draws a matchup that fits his strengths extremely well.
• Cleveland plays man coverage on roughly 43–46% of snaps, the highest rate in the NFL
• McMillan is targeted on 28% of his routes against man compared to 21.4% against zone
• Leads the NFL in WR targets inside the 5-yard line
OddsJam is showing a major +EV gap on McMillan, and the red-zone usage is the biggest reason I'm buying it. Cleveland has already allowed an NFL-high 4 touchdowns to wide receivers.
#3 - J. Jefferson (Tail best line)
Justin Jefferson's massive target share continues to give him opportunities to find the end zone.
• Already has 2 touchdowns through the first two games
• Ranks 5th in the NFL with a 34.1% target share
• Tampa Bay just allowed Denzel Boston to post 5 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown
Jefferson's elite volume against a defense that has allowed the 5th-most receptions puts him in another strong scoring spot.
#2 - L. Jackson (Tail best line)
Lamar Jackson's rushing ability creates a perfect matchup against a Dallas defense struggling to contain quarterbacks.
• Dallas has allowed the most rushing yards to quarterbacks at over 60 per game
• Lamar already has a rushing touchdown this season
• Ranks 4th in the NFL in rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line
Dallas also owns the 3rd-lowest sack rate in football at just 2.7%, which should give Lamar more opportunities to escape the pocket and create with his legs.
#1 - K. Walker III (Tail best line)
Kenneth Walker III has the workload and matchup we want when looking for touchdowns.
• Already has 2 touchdowns this season
• Coming off 30 total touches for 178 yards
• Leads the NFL in goal-line touches
Miami has already surrendered 5 touchdowns to running backs, the most in the NFL. OddsJam's Sharp Money tool is picking up action on Walker as well, and with this combination of goal-line usage and matchup, it's easy to see the appeal.
That’s the list. Week 3 is here, and we’ve got five touchdown spots across the Sunday slate ready to find the end zone.
See you out there,
-Joe