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Khalil Shakir’s role is built on short-area volume, but that profile severely limits his touchdown upside in this matchup.

• Has scored just one touchdown over his last nine games
• Averages 3.5 air yards per target, with 39.3 percent of his targets coming at or behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate among wide receivers
• Denver has allowed the fewest wide receiver touchdowns this season and just one touchdown to slot receivers, where Shakir runs 62 percent of his routes

When a low-depth, volume-based receiver faces the league’s toughest touchdown defense for wideouts, finding the end zone becomes unlikely.

R. J. Harvey’s rushing efficiency has been volatile, but his scoring role and receiving usage keep his touchdown path intact.

• Has scored in five of his last six games, totaling six touchdowns over that span
• Since the loss of J.K. Dobbins, Harvey has handled 64.5 percent of the backfield touches and 14 of the 18 touches inside the 10-yard line
• Buffalo has allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season and the third-most total RB touchdowns, including 116 total yards and a score to Travis Etienne Jr. last week

When red-zone control meets the league’s most generous running back touchdown defense, one score is the expectation. My #1 pick is a different RB who could score through the air.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the engine of Seattle’s offense all season, and his touchdown equity remains strong even as defenses adjust.

• Finished the season with 10 total touchdowns, the fifth-most among wide receivers
• Led the NFL in yards per route run, target share at 35.8 percent, and air-yard share at 50.1 percent
• Over the last six games, accounted for 33.1 percent of team targets, the highest rate in the league, and 47.7 percent of the air yards, the second-highest rate

When one player combines elite scoring production with total offensive control, touchdown equity stays intact regardless of opponent.

Rhamondre Stevenson has separated himself as New England’s most productive and trusted back in high-leverage situations.

• Scored four touchdowns over the final three games of the regular season
• Over the past six games, out-gained TreVeyon Henderson 618 yards to 430 while averaging 9.0 yards per touch
• Houston allows running backs to account for 22.9 percent of all receptions against them, the sixth-highest rate in the league

When receiving usage meets sustained scoring form, Stevenson’s touchdown path remains intact even in a tougher matchup.

Davante Adams’ scoring profile remains unmatched, and the matchup amplifies his already elite touchdown equity.

• Led the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns despite missing the final three games
• Logged 28 end-zone targets, the most since tracking began, with the next closest receiver at 18
• Chicago allowed the third-most wide receiver touchdowns this season and ranked bottom-two in yards per target, touchdown rate, and deep-ball efficiency

When the league’s most dominant end-zone receiver faces one of the weakest wide receiver defenses, a touchdown becomes the natural outcome.