Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.
Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.
Guys… I’ve never seen anything like this Thursday Night Football run we are on…
It’s probably time to talk more about my secret weapon 👇 👇
My process starts and ends with EV Analytics, so I want to thank them for sponsoring today’s newsletter 👇
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Another newsletter I think you’ll love…
✅ Easiest Game of the Week
#6
👇 B. Purdy: O 238.5 pass yards
Partners: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
He takes on a Vikings defense that loves to bring heat. But, that actually plays to Purdy’s strengths. Last year, he completed 86.7% of passes for 11.8 yards per attempt against their blitzes. Not to mention Minnesota allowed the 5th-most pass attempts last year. Classic.
#5
👇 D. Samuel: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
Partners: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
Most people will tell you the 49ers target share is random... it's not. They’re just extremely sensitive to man vs. zone coverage defenses. I told you this last week... remember. I'll say it again, Deebo destroys zone coverage. With Purdy on the field, he has a massive 28.2% target share in those situations. Plus, his carry numbers skyrocket when CMC is out. Deebo is the strongest anytime TD pick in this game and it's not close.
#4
👇 A. Jones: O 17.5 rec yards
Partners: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
You may not know this... but the 49ers allowed the 5th-most receptions to running backs last year. So Aaron Jones will easily top 17.5... which is the lowest we'll see this number all year.
#3
👇 S. Darnold: O 229.5 pass yards
Partners: (Sleeper)| USE CODE: NFLARMY
The Vikings will pass a lot this week because they're 6-point underdogs and teams facing the 49ers attempt the 5th-most passes in the league... so this 229.5 number is just way too low for Sam Darnold aka this year's Baker Mayfield.
#2
👇 J. Jefferson: O 79.5 rec yards
Partners: (Betr) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
Justin Jefferson's target share will increase with Jordan Addison out, and he ranks in the 100th percentile in air yards. But the 49ers pass defense has allowed the 7th-fewest YAC to wide receivers. So, Jefferson’s deep play ability and projected high volume make this a strong play for HIGHER than 79.5.