IND @ WAS
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#4 - K. Allen: O 4+ Rec (Tail best line)
Keenan Allen's role expanded last week, and now he gets one of the best matchups possible for receptions.
• Caught 6 of 9 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown last week
• Ran a route on 75.6% of the team's dropbacks, a real increase in playing time
• Saw a season-high 25.7% target share with Pierce out
Washington allows a league-high 15.3 receptions per game to wide receivers, putting Allen in a great spot to get to four catches.
#3 - S. Diggs: O 46+ Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Stefon Diggs gets a matchup that lines up extremely well with where he's been most involved.
• Targeted on a team-high 29.3% of his routes
• Plays 62.7% of his snaps from the slot, where Indianapolis has allowed a league-high 315 receiving yards
• Against man coverage, owns a team-high 37.5% target rate per route with 2.25 yards per route run
The Colts also allow an NFL-high 16.8 yards per reception, giving Diggs a strong path to clear 46 yards.
#2 - T. Warren: O 47+ Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Tyler Warren continues to see elite involvement for a tight end.
• Caught 8 of 9 targets for 48 yards last week, already clearing this number
• Plays 87% of the team's dropbacks, trailing only Trey McBride at the position
• Owns 23.4% of the team's targets, ranking TE4 through three weeks
OddsJam is showing a strong +EV edge on Warren, and Washington allowing 10.1 yards per target to tight ends gives that volume an especially favorable matchup.
#1 - D. Jones: O 2+ Passing TDs (Tail best line)
Daniel Jones finally gets a matchup that should allow this passing offense to open things up.
• Washington has allowed an NFL-high 11 passing touchdowns and a league-worst 10.9% touchdown rate
• Allows a 73.3% completion rate and 11.5 yards per attempt against play action
• Jones ranks 4th in the NFL in play-action usage
After opening against Baltimore, Kansas City and Houston, this is easily Jones' most favorable matchup yet. OddsJam's Sharp Money tool has also picked up action on this number, and Washington's inability to keep quarterbacks out of the end zone gives us a clear reason why.
That’s the list. Week 4 starts bright and early from London with Colts vs. Commanders, and we’ve got four spots to attack before the rest of the Sunday slate even gets going.
See you out there,
-Joe