ATL @ NO
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#5 - D. London: O 79+ Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Drake London looks like a completely different receiver with Penix back under center.
• Just caught 9 of 10 targets for 194 yards last week
• Targeted on 40% of his routes with Penix back, up from 22% over his first two games
• Has topped 100 receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games with Penix at quarterback
New Orleans has been gashed by opposing No. 1 receivers, and London's massive usage with Penix gives him another strong opportunity for a big game.
#4 - C. Olave: O 7+ Receptions (Tail best line)
Chris Olave continues to command elite volume in the Saints' passing attack.
• Has cleared this in 5 straight games dating back to last season, averaging 9 receptions per game
• Owns 29% of the team's targets, WR5 leaguewide, and 47.7% of the air yards, WR4
• Ranks 4th in the NFL in perimeter receptions, while Atlanta allows the 2nd-most receptions on the perimeter
OddsJam is showing a strong +EV edge on Olave's reception number, and with A.J. Terrell out, the matchup only gets better. Olave also caught 9 passes in his last meeting with Atlanta.
#3 - J. Johnson: O 41+ Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Juwan Johnson continues to see one of the biggest receiving workloads among NFL tight ends.
• Caught all 8 of his targets for 53 yards and 2 touchdowns last week
• Has run 106 pass routes this season, 2nd-most among all tight ends behind only Trey McBride
• Has cleared this number in 6 straight games dating back to last season, averaging 70 receiving yards during that stretch
Johnson also put up 61 yards against Atlanta during that run, giving him a strong combination of recent production and opportunity.
#2 - B. Robinson: O 86+ Rush Yards (Tail best line)
Bijan Robinson is coming off a monster performance and gets another matchup that fits his rushing profile.
• Leads the NFL with 467 yards from scrimmage
• Just rushed for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns on 29 carries
• 59.1% of his carries come on outside zone, the 4th-highest rate in the league
New Orleans ranks dead last in success rate against outside zone and allows 5.0 yards per carry on those runs. That matchup lines up perfectly with how Atlanta has been using Bijan.
#1 - T. Shough: O 35+ Passing Att (Tail best line)
Tyler Shough continues to operate in one of the highest-volume passing attacks in football.
• Leads the NFL with 48.7 dropbacks per game
• Averaging 44 pass attempts per game this season
• Teams facing Atlanta throw 13.6% above expectation, the highest rate in the league
Atlanta has forced the 2nd-most pass attempts at 43 per game, and OddsJam's Sharp Money tool is picking up action on Shough's volume as well. Everything about this matchup points toward another pass-heavy game.
That’s the list. Week 4 closes out with an NFC South rivalry as the Falcons head to New Orleans for Monday Night Football, and we’ve got five spots to attack before kickoff.
See you out there,
-Joe