BUF @ LAR
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#5 - K. Williams: O 3+ Rec (Tail best line)
Kyren Williams continues to play a major role in the Rams' passing attack and gets an excellent matchup for running back receiving volume.
• Buffalo allows 7.8 targets per game to running backs, 3rd-most in the NFL
• Owns a 15.2% target share, ranking 7th among running backs
• Has cleared this number in 3 of 4 games, averaging 5.3 receptions
Williams also commanded a team-high 25.5% target share last game. His consistent involvement through the air against a defense that gives up plenty of RB targets makes this a strong reception spot.
#4 - J. Cook: O 76+ Rush Yards (Tail best line)
James Cook continues to dominate Buffalo's backfield and has been one of the most efficient runners in football.
• Handles 94.6% of Buffalo's RB carries, the highest share in the NFL
• Ranks 3rd in rushing yards at 105.3 per game
• Has cleared this number in 3 straight games, averaging 121 rushing yards
Cook also leads qualifying running backs with an 11.4% breakaway run rate and gets stopped for no gain on a league-low 5.7% of his carries. OddsJam has this flagged as +EV, and with Cook handling nearly every Buffalo RB carry, it's easy to see why.
#3 - D. Knox: U 12+ Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Dawson Knox draws the toughest tight end receiving matchup in football, and his recent production hasn't offered much reason for optimism.
• Los Angeles allows just 21.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends, fewest in the NFL
• Also allows only 2.9 yards per target to the position, lowest in the league
• Knox has stayed under this number in 3 of 4 games, averaging just 7.5 receiving yards
With the Rams limiting tight end production better than any defense in football, Knox faces an uphill battle to reach even 11 receiving yards.
#2 - P. Nacua: O 1+Anytime TD (Tail best line)
Puka Nacua gets a Buffalo defense that's been extremely vulnerable to wide receiver touchdowns.
• Buffalo allows 1.5 touchdowns per game to wide receivers, 2nd-most in the NFL
• Owns a 26.6% target share, ranking 10th among wide receivers
• Buffalo allows 4 red-zone trips per game, 5th-most in the league
Nacua found the end zone last week, and with Los Angeles carrying a 28.8-point implied team total, his elite target volume gives him another strong opportunity to score. OddsJam's Sharp Money tool is also picking up action on his touchdown projection, adding another reason to like him here.
#1 - J. Allen: O 1+ Anytime TD (Tail best line)
Josh Allen continues to be one of the most dangerous touchdown threats in football, especially when Buffalo needs him most.
• Tied for the NFL lead with 7 rushing touchdowns, averaging 1.8 per game
• The Rams surrendered a rushing touchdown to Bo Nix just two weeks ago
• Averaged a league-high 26.6 fantasy points per game as an underdog since 2020
Allen also scored multiple rushing touchdowns in 3 of his 4 games as an underdog last season. His ability to take over near the goal line gives him multiple paths to finding the end zone.
That’s the list. Week 5 closes out in Los Angeles with Bills vs. Rams on Monday Night Football, and we’ve got five spots to attack in a matchup loaded with offensive firepower.
See you out there,
-Joe