DAL @ PHI
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#5 - D. Prescott: O 24+ Cmp (Tail best line)
Dak Prescott continues to lead one of the NFL's most pass-heavy offenses, and Philadelphia's inability to generate consistent pressure gives him another favorable matchup.
• Philadelphia allows 36.2 pass attempts per game, 8th-most in the NFL, while Prescott averages 41 attempts and 27.2 completions, both 2nd-most among QBs
• The Eagles own a 3.3% sack rate, 2nd-lowest in the NFL, and a 28.1% pressure rate, 10th-lowest
• Dallas passes on 62.4% of neutral-situation plays, 4th-highest, and operates at the 6th-fastest pace in the league
Prescott has cleared this number in five straight games, averaging 28.2 completions. OddsJam's +EV tool is highlighting value on his completions projection, and Dallas' aggressive passing approach gives him an excellent opportunity to keep that streak alive.
#4 - T. McKee: U 2 Pass TDs (Tail best line)
Tanner McKee faces a difficult matchup against a Dallas defense that generates consistent pressure, and Philadelphia's uncertainty at its skill positions creates even more concerns.
• Philadelphia has 69.2% of its team targets tied to questionable players, including Barkley, Goedert, Smith and Wicks
• McKee averages just 4.8 yards per pass attempt, the lowest among 43 qualifying QBs
• Dallas pressures quarterbacks on 33.5% of dropbacks, 8th-highest in the NFL
McKee has thrown just 1 touchdown in each of his last two starts, while Philadelphia carries a 20-point implied team total, tied for 21st on the slate. Dallas also hasn't allowed multiple passing touchdowns in consecutive games, making this a difficult spot for McKee to reach two scores.
#3 - G. Pickens: O 65+ Rec Yards (Tail best line)
George Pickens has been one of Dallas' most productive receiving threats lately and gets another favorable matchup against a Philadelphia defense that's struggled against wide receivers.
• Philadelphia allows 182.7 receiving yards per game to WRs, 4th-most in the NFL, and 21.8 targets, tied for 3rd-most
• Pickens has cleared this number in four straight games, averaging 90 receiving yards
• Dallas averages 41 pass attempts per game, 2nd-most, while Philadelphia ranks near the bottom of the league in sack and pressure rates
Pickens dominated his last matchup against Philadelphia, catching all 9 targets for 146 yards. With Dallas continuing to throw at one of the highest rates in football, he has another excellent opportunity to deliver a big receiving performance.
#2 - D. Goedert: O 5+ Rec (Tail best line)
Dallas Goedert could see a major increase in opportunities with Philadelphia missing key receiving options, and the matchup against Dallas plays directly into his strengths.
• Dallas allows an 83.8% catch rate to TEs, 2nd-highest in the NFL, while Goedert caught 17 of his last 24 targets
• Goedert draws targets on 33.3% of his routes against zone, 2nd-highest among TEs, while Dallas allows 8.0 yards per attempt against zone, tied for 3rd-highest
• With DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks out, roughly 40% of Philadelphia's passing targets from last week are available
Goedert has caught 6 passes in back-to-back games, drawing 9 and 8 targets, and ranked 2nd on the team with a 17.8% target share last week. OddsJam's Sharp Money tool is also picking up action on his receptions projection, adding to an already favorable outlook with Philadelphia's depleted receiving corps.
#1 - J. Williams: O 1+ TDs (Tail best line)
Javonte Williams continues to be one of the NFL's most productive touchdown scorers, and Philadelphia's struggles against running backs give him another excellent scoring opportunity.
• Philadelphia allows 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game, 5th-most in the NFL, while Williams has 8 touchdowns, tied for 2nd-most
• The Eagles allow 26.0 RB rushing attempts per game, most in the NFL, while Williams commands 80.2% of Dallas' RB carries
• Williams averages 4.33 touches inside the 20 and 2.83 inside the 10 per game, both ranking 4th among RBs
Williams has scored in four straight games, totaling 6 touchdowns during that stretch. Philadelphia also misses tackles on 14.9% of plays, 2nd-highest in the NFL, and Dallas carries a 24.5-point implied team total, giving Williams another strong opportunity to find the end zone.
That’s the list. Week 7 Monday Night Football takes us to Philadelphia for Cowboys vs. Eagles, and we’ve got five spots to attack in this NFC East rivalry.
See you out there,
-Joe

