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De’Aaron Fox’s scoring trend continues to project above this number if active.

• Has cleared this in 90.9% of playoff games (18.8 avg)
• Per-minute projections place him at 18.6 points
• Has averaged well above this number in recent road form

Monitor Fox’s game status closely, as his availability could impact multiple Spurs picks on this slate by shifting usage and opportunity. If he suits up, the scoring profile remains strong.

Chet Holmgren’s rebounding ceiling continues to trend below this number.

• Has not recorded a double-double once vs. San Antonio this series
• Has cleared this in only 20% of playoff games
• San Antonio allows the 5TH-FEWEST points over their last 10 games

The Spurs also limit PF scoring efficiency (47.7% FG allowed, 8TH-LOWEST), capping Holmgren’s double-double path.

Stephon Castle’s all-around ceiling runs into the toughest guard matchup in basketball.

• Has cleared this in only 30.8% of playoff games (31.7 avg)
• Oklahoma City allows the FEWEST points to PGs this season (21.6 per game)
• Oklahoma City allows the LOWEST FG% to PGs this season (41.5%)

The Thunder also allow the 3RD-FEWEST assists to PGs, making this a difficult matchup across the board.

Devin Vassell’s scoring profile continues to trend below this number.

• Has cleared this in only 23.1% of playoff games (13.2 avg)
• Oklahoma City ranks as the 5TH-BEST defense over their last 10 games
• Oklahoma City allows just 22.7 PPG to SGs this season (10TH-FEWEST)

The Thunder also hold SGs to just 43.8% shooting, limiting scoring efficiency.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s all-around ceiling continues to run into San Antonio’s elite defense.

• Has not cleared this once vs. San Antonio this series (41 avg vs 43.5 line)
• Has cleared this in only 30% of playoff games (39.6 avg)
• San Antonio ranks as the BEST defense over their last 10 games

The Spurs also limit PG efficiency (43.1% FG allowed, 5TH-LOWEST) and assists (7.4 APG allowed, 4TH-FEWEST).