BAL @ ATL
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#5 - B. Robinson: O 1+ TD (Tail best line)
Bijan Robinson continues to find the end zone, and Baltimore gives him another favorable scoring matchup.
• Tied for 8th in the NFL with 5 total touchdowns, averaging 1.3 per game
• Has scored in 3 of 4 games this season
• Baltimore allows 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game, 5th-most in the NFL
Baltimore also allows 4 red-zone trips per game, giving Robinson plenty of opportunities to extend his touchdown production.
#4 - D. Henry: O 1+ TD (Tail best line)
Derrick Henry has been the most reliable touchdown scorer in football, and his goal-line workload remains unmatched.
• Tied for the NFL lead with 7 touchdowns, scoring in every game this season
• Leads all running backs with 4.3 touches per game inside the 10-yard line
• Scored 6 touchdowns in Huntley's 2 starts last season
Atlanta just surrendered 2 touchdowns to Alvin Kamara, and OddsJam is showing a strong +EV edge on Henry's touchdown number. His unmatched goal-line usage makes him one of the strongest scoring candidates on the slate.
#3 - J. Hill: U 12+ Rush Yards (Tail best line)
Justice Hill draws a brutal matchup against the NFL's toughest run defense.
• Atlanta allows just 2.8 yards per carry, lowest in the NFL
• Allows only 15.5 rushing attempts per game to running backs, also the fewest
• Hill has stayed under this number in 2 of his last 3 games, finishing with 6 and 3 yards
Hill managed just 1 carry for 3 yards against Tennessee last week, and Atlanta's ability to limit both rushing volume and efficiency makes this a difficult number to reach.
#2 - Z. Flowers: O 69+ Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Zay Flowers continues to dominate Baltimore's passing game and gets an Atlanta defense that's been torched by opposing No. 1 receivers.
• Leads all wide receivers with 0.40 targets per route run
• Ranks 3rd in the NFL with 117.3 receiving yards per game
• Atlanta allows 25.3 targets per game to wide receivers, most in the NFL
Flowers has cleared this number in all 3 games, and Atlanta's last three WR1 matchups produced 116 yards for Olave, 96 for Watson and 101 for McMillan. His elite target volume gives him another strong opportunity to deliver.
#1 - D. London: O 81+ Rec Yards(Tail best line)
Drake London has been unstoppable since Penix returned, and Baltimore gives him another favorable matchup.
• Has commanded 43.5% and 30% of Atlanta's targets in his last 2 games
• Cleared this number in both games with Penix back, averaging 145 receiving yards
• Baltimore allows 21.8 targets per game to wide receivers, 4th-most in the NFL
Baltimore's last three opposing WR1s all delivered big performances, and OddsJam's Sharp Money tool is picking up action on London. His massive target share with Penix gives him a strong opportunity to keep rolling..
That’s the list. Week 5 Sunday Night Football takes us to Atlanta for Ravens vs. Falcons, and we’ve got five spots to attack in what could be one of the highest-scoring games of the week.
See you out there,
-Joe