DET @ CAR
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#5 - J. Gibbs: O 100+ Rush Yards (Tail best line)
Jahmyr Gibbs has the workload and matchup to put together another huge game.
• Ranks 2nd in the NFL with 463 total yards and 6 touchdowns through three games
• Leads the NFL with 83 touches
• Carolina allows a league-high 5.9 yards per carry to running backs
Gibbs is already getting elite volume, and Carolina's inability to stop the run gives him a strong opportunity to reach 100 yards.
#4 - T. McMillan: O 71+ Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Tetairoa McMillan gets a Detroit defense that's been extremely vulnerable to wide receivers.
• Detroit allows a 73.7% catch rate to WRs, 4th-highest in the NFL, and 9.9 yards per target, 3rd-highest
• With Coker on the field, McMillan owns a 27.3% target share and 1.93 yards per route run
• Targeted at a team-high 27.3% rate against the blitz, while Detroit ranks top-10 in blitz rate
McMillan has already cleared this number in 2 of 3 games, and OddsJam is showing a strong +EV edge here as well. The matchup against Detroit fits exactly where McMillan has been most productive.
#3 - D. Waller: O 3+ Rec (Tail best line)
Darren Waller's role continues to grow, and this matchup couldn't be much better for a tight end.
• Has cleared this number in back-to-back games, including 5 catches on 8 targets for 51 yards last week
• Detroit allows by far the most receptions to tight ends at 9.6 per game
• Waller sees a 25% target rate against zone compared to 14.7% against man
Detroit plays zone on 76.3% of its snaps, putting Waller directly into the coverage where he's been targeted most often.
#2 - J. Goff: O 2+ Passing TDs (Tail best line)
Jared Goff has been remarkably consistent finding the end zone through the air.
• Has thrown multiple touchdowns in all 3 games this season, with 6 total
• Completing 70.6% of his passes, 5th-best in the NFL
• Owns a 7.3% touchdown rate, ranking 7th
Carolina's recent defensive numbers came against Cooper Rush and Deshaun Watson. The last time it faced a high-powered offense, Chicago scored 59 points with Caleb Williams throwing 2 touchdowns.
#1 - A. St. Brown: O 7+ Rec (Tail best line)
Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to command massive volume in Detroit's passing attack.
• Owns 32.4% of Detroit's targets, ranking WR3 leaguewide
• Commands 42.9% of the team's red-zone targets
• Averaging 7.7 receptions per game this season
Carolina will also be without starting corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson. OddsJam's Sharp Money tool has seen action on St. Brown's reception number, and his elite target share gives him a strong path to 7+ catches.
That’s the list. Sunday Night Football takes us to Carolina for Lions vs. Panthers, and we’ve got five spots to attack in what could be a big night for Detroit’s offense.
See you out there,
-Joe