IND @ KC

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#5 - K. Allen: O 3.5 Receptions (Tail best line)

Keenan Allen immediately showed that his reliable target volume is still there.

• Caught all 6 targets he saw in Week 1, already clearing this number
• Tied for the team lead in targets despite playing just 76.5% of the dropbacks
• Averaged 6 receptions across his two matchups against Kansas City last season

Allen is back in a familiar outside-heavy role, and needing just four catches gives him plenty of room to clear.

#4 - X. Worthy: O 3.5 Receptions (Tail best line)

Xavier Worthy's Week 1 usage points toward another strong opportunity in this matchup.

• Tied for the team lead in targets and routes run (30) in Week 1
• Caught 4 of 8 targets in this exact matchup last season
• Indianapolis played man coverage at a league-high 46.9% rate in Week 1, where Worthy's target rate jumps to 23.8% per route

OddsJam flagged this one as one of the biggest +EV numbers on the board, and Worthy's usage makes it look even softer. Indianapolis also ranked 30th in passing-play success rate defensively in Week 1.

#3 - A. Pierce: O 45.5 Rec Yards (Tail best line)

Alec Pierce produced immediately in Week 1 despite still working his way back from an ankle injury.

• Caught 4 of 6 targets for 61 yards
• Led Indianapolis in receiving yards while being targeted on a team-high 27.3% of his routes
• Commanded a 40% target share on third downs despite playing just 64.7% of the passing snaps

Pierce already cleared this line on limited snaps, and a larger workload gives him even more opportunity in Week 2.

#2 - K Walker III: O 79.5 Rush Yards (Tail best line)

Kenneth Walker III looked unstoppable in his Chiefs debut.

• Exploded for 173 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries in Week 1
• Forced a league-high 16 missed tackles, more than double the next closest back
• Indianapolis just allowed 112 yards and 3 touchdowns on 18 outside-zone carries against Baltimore

Walker used outside zone on 34.8% of his carries last week, making this an especially appealing matchup against a Colts defense Derrick Henry just ran through for 144 yards.

#1 - J. Taylor: O 1 TDs (Tail best line)

Jonathan Taylor enters Week 2 with one of the most secure workloads of any running back in football.

• Scored 2 touchdowns on 22 touches for 121 total yards in Week 1
• Led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2025
• Led all RBs with an 88.7% snap share and 95.7% backfield touch share in the opener

Sharp Money on OddsJam moved on this one fast, and Taylor's near-total control of the backfield helps explain why. Add in his passing-game involvement, and he has multiple paths to another touchdown.

That’s the list. Sunday Night Football takes us to Arrowhead for Colts vs. Chiefs, and we’ve got five spots to attack as Week 2 rolls into primetime.

See you out there,

-Joe