PHI @ WAS
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#5 - S. Diggs: O 5+ Rec (Tail best line)
Stefon Diggs gets a favorable matchup against a Philadelphia defense that's struggled to limit slot receivers, and his recent production gives him a strong opportunity to reach five catches.
• Philadelphia allows 13.1 receptions per game to WRs, 8th-most in the NFL
• The Eagles allow 5.7 receptions per game to slot receivers, the most in the league, while Diggs plays 63.2% of his snaps in the slot
• Diggs has caught at least 5 passes in 3 of his last 4 games
Diggs also drew 9 targets against Philadelphia in Week 1, showing he can generate consistent opportunities in this matchup. OddsJam's +EV tool is highlighting value on his receptions projection, and Philadelphia's struggles against slot receivers give him another favorable opportunity.
#4 - T. McKee: O 1+ Pass TD (Tail best line)
Tanner McKee gets one of the most favorable passing matchups in football against a Washington defense that's struggled to keep opposing quarterbacks out of the end zone.
• Washington allows 2.7 passing touchdowns per game, the most in the NFL
• The Commanders allow an 81.8% red-zone touchdown rate, 2nd-highest in the league
• Washington faces 38.3 pass attempts per game, 5th-most, while McKee averages 40 attempts across his two starts
McKee has thrown a touchdown in both of his starts, and Philadelphia has recorded a passing touchdown in 6 of 7 games. Washington's league-worst passing touchdown defense gives him an excellent opportunity to extend that streak.
#3 - A. Williams: O 33+ Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Antonio Williams could see another expanded role with Terry McLaurin out, and Philadelphia's struggles against wide receivers create an excellent opportunity for him to produce.
• Philadelphia allows 185.3 receiving yards per game to WRs, 4th-most in the NFL
• The Eagles allow 5.7 receptions per game to slot receivers, the most in the league, while Williams plays 42% of his snaps in the slot without McLaurin
• Williams recorded 4 catches for 64 yards against Philadelphia in Week 1
Williams also produced 50 receiving yards last week after McLaurin exited, with his route participation climbing from 47% to 72.2%. That increased opportunity, combined with a favorable matchup, gives him a strong chance to clear this number.
#2 - D. Goedert: O 42+ Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Dallas Goedert gets an excellent matchup against a Washington defense that's struggled against tight ends, and his involvement with Tanner McKee creates another favorable opportunity.
• Washington allows 73.5 receiving yards per game to TEs, 5th-most in the NFL, and 9.0 yards per target, 4th-highest
• The Commanders allow 6.2 receptions per game to TEs, 9th-most, while Goedert owns a 21% target share without DeVonta Smith compared to 14% with him
• Goedert averages 7.5 targets and 54.5 receiving yards across McKee's two starts
Goedert's increased involvement without Smith makes him one of Philadelphia's most reliable receiving options. OddsJam's Sharp Money tool is also picking up action on his receiving yardage projection, adding another angle to a matchup that already favors tight end production.
#1 - J. Daniels: O 30+ Rush Yards (Tail best line)
Jayden Daniels gets a favorable opportunity to use his legs against a Philadelphia defense that's struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks.
• Philadelphia allows 0.43 rushing touchdowns per game to QBs, the most in the NFL
• Daniels averages 6.3 rushing attempts per game and has cleared 30 rushing yards in 3 of 4 games, averaging 53.3
• Philadelphia owns a 3.2% sack rate, the lowest in the NFL
Daniels rushed 5 times for 31 yards against Philadelphia in Week 1, already clearing this number in the same matchup. His consistent rushing involvement and recent production give him another strong opportunity to reach 30 yards.
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That’s the list. Week 8 Sunday Night Football takes us to Washington for Eagles vs. Commanders, and we’ve got five spots to attack in this NFC East showdown.
See you out there,
-Joe

