Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

We’re already off and running!

I just posted 10 more plays for Sunday… get in there!

NOTE: You can adjust with alt lines to get these numbers if they are bumped.

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Mike Evans is the centerpiece of Tampa Bay’s passing attack and is primed to DOMINATE this number. Since Week 12, Evans has commanded a MASSIVE 30.6% TARGET SHARE, with an elite 3.73 yards per route run—both metrics that rank among the NFL’s best. BUT the matchup makes this projection feel WAY TOO LOW. The Cowboys have allowed the 6TH-MOST adjusted yards per target (8.61) to opposing wideouts this season and now face an uphill battle without Trevon Diggs. Adding to Evans’ edge is Tampa Bay’s 4TH-BEST offensive line in pocket protection, giving Baker Mayfield ample time to find his top weapon.

Evans is also chasing history—he needs just 83.7 yards per game over the next three weeks to secure another 1,000-yard season, providing extra motivation for a player already delivering at an elite level. With this game projected for the 4TH-HIGHEST play volume of the week (132.4 plays), Evans has the perfect environment to exploit Dallas’s weaknesses. SO, with his proven efficiency and high-volume role, this number feels like a LOCK.

Best Multiplier: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

CeeDee Lamb is an automatic LOCK for volume in this matchup. Tampa Bay’s defense is the league’s BIGGEST pass funnel, allowing the MOST pass attempts per game (40.4), and Dallas is expected to lean heavily on the pass, with the 5TH-HIGHEST projected pass rate this week (61.9%). Lamb has been Cooper Rush’s go-to option, commanding a MASSIVE 30.5% TARGET SHARE with him under center, and his versatility makes him even more dangerous. Lamb runs nearly 50% of his routes from the slot, where Tampa has allowed the 8TH-WORST yards per target (8.7) to opposing receivers this season.

BUT the numbers go beyond the matchup. Lamb’s league-leading 10.3 targets per game (2ND-MOST) provide consistent elite volume, and the dome environment guarantees perfect passing conditions to boost efficiency. Tampa’s defense also struggles against WR1s, ranking poorly in defending high-target wideouts. SO, with a game script that favors passing and a matchup tailor-made for Lamb’s skill set, this number is simply WAY TOO LOW. Expect him to CRUSH it.

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Cooper Rush is in a prime spot to SMASH this projection. He’s expected to attempt 38.7 passes this week, the 3RD-MOST among all QBs, in a game projected for the 4TH-HIGHEST play volume (132.4 plays). BUT the matchup takes this pick to the next level. Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed the 4TH-MOST passing yards per game (258.0) this season, forcing opposing offenses to attack through the air. Rush thrives in these conditions, especially against blitz-heavy defenses like Tampa’s (2ND-HIGHEST blitz rate at 35.1%). He averages an impressive 8.4 yards per attempt (12TH-BEST) when blitzed, showing his ability to handle pressure effectively.

Dallas is also projected to pass at the 5TH-HIGHEST rate this week (61.9%), aligning perfectly with Tampa Bay’s defensive tendencies. With the Bucs forcing teams to abandon the run and focus on passing, Rush’s volume and efficiency should easily clear this number. SO, with everything pointing toward a pass-heavy game plan, this projection feels WAY TOO LOW.

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Baker Mayfield has been on an absolute tear, and this matchup sets him up to CRUSH this projection. Since Week 12, Mayfield has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt (2ND-BEST) and completing 71.4% of his passes (7TH-BEST). BUT Dallas’s defense presents an even greater opportunity. They’ve allowed the 2ND-MOST adjusted yards per target (8.6) this season and have struggled to contain accurate, high-efficiency passers like Mayfield.

Tampa’s 4TH-BEST offensive line in pocket protection will give Mayfield the time he needs to attack downfield, while the dome setting ensures perfect passing conditions. The game’s 4TH-HIGHEST projected play volume (132.4 plays) adds even more opportunities for Mayfield to hit this number. SO, with elite efficiency, a favorable matchup, and a pass-heavy game environment, this projection feels like EASY MONEY.

PrizePicks - Play $5 lineup, Win $50 instantly (link)

Underdog - up to $1,000 (link)

Sleeper - Place a $5 contest, Get $55 instantly (link)

NOTE: You can adjust with alt lines to get these numbers if they are bumped.

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Josh Jacobs has been a workhorse all season, and his recent production is impossible to ignore. He’s handled 30 touches for 136 total yards and a touchdown in his latest game, extending his streak to four straight games with a score. BUT what makes this number so compelling is the matchup. The Saints rank 29TH in the NFL in rushing yards per carry allowed (4.9) and have surrendered the 3RD-MOST first downs or touchdowns on RB runs this season. Jacobs has been dominant in creating extra yardage, ranking 3RD in the NFL with 3.41 yards after contact—a testament to his ability to produce even against defensive resistance. He’s also projected for 26.4 carries this week, which ranks in the 100TH PERCENTILE for RB workload, meaning no other back is expected to see more volume. SO with Green Bay’s offense running at the 4TH-HIGHEST rate in positive game scripts and Jacobs commanding 77.5% of the team’s carries, this number feels like a gift. Against a defense this vulnerable to the run, Jacobs is poised to CRUSH.

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Kendre Miller is stepping into a prime opportunity with Alvin Kamara unlikely to suit up due to a groin injury. Kamara’s absence has been confirmed as “week-to-week” by beat reporter Nick Underhill, leaving Miller as the clear RB1 in a Saints offense that prioritizes the run. Miller is projected for 18.9 carries, putting him in the 89TH PERCENTILE for RB workload this week—a massive jump from his typical role. BUT it’s not just the volume that makes this pick intriguing; the Saints rank 4TH-HIGHEST in adjusted rush rate, leaning heavily on the ground game, and are expected to run the 2ND-MOST offensive plays of any team this week at 69.4. While Green Bay’s defense has tightened up against the run since their bye, allowing only 3.7 yards per carry, Miller’s elite efficiency—averaging 3.71 yards after contact this season (92ND PERCENTILE)—positions him to thrive in this expanded role. SO with volume, scheme, and efficiency all aligned, Miller is a LOCK to beat this projection.

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

Jayden Reed has been a steady contributor for the Packers, showing significant growth with a 76.8% adjusted catch rate this season—a strong indicator of his reliability. BUT this week’s matchup against the Saints’ secondary makes this projection feel even more attainable. New Orleans’ cornerbacks have graded as the 2ND-WORST unit in the league this season, consistently failing to limit opposing wide receivers. The Saints also allow the 6TH-MOST pass attempts per game (36.8), creating plenty of opportunities for Reed to make plays. Reed thrives against Cover 2 defenses, leading the Packers with 23.6% of targets and averaging 2.49 yards per route run—both elite metrics for his role. SO with Green Bay projected to run the 2ND-MOST offensive plays this week, Reed’s volume and efficiency make this number an EASY WIN.

PrizePicks - Play $5 lineup, Win $50 instantly (link)

Underdog - up to $1,000 (link)

Sleeper - Place a $5 contest, Get $55 instantly (link)

Leveraging promotions and specials across sportsbooks is the #1 key to success in prop betting and pick'em.

By partnering with multiple apps, YOU’LL get access to the best lines and daily offers, enhancing your strategy and maximizing your chances at winning long term. Sign up and start with a guaranteed win (0.5 yard special) today…

Use code: NFLARMY

Win $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup

Use code: NFLARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,000

Use code: NFLARMY

Place a $5 contest, Get $55 instantly