It’s rivalry night in the AFC North. Steelers vs. Bengals always gets physical, and I’ve locked in the sharpest edges… in two minutes or less.

Ja’Marr Chase has quietly re-established himself as a target monster under Joe Flacco, drawing double-digit targets in back-to-back games and finding the end zone three times over that span. He hauled in 10 of 12 for 94 yards last week and nearly matched that in his previous outing. His connection with Flacco is already producing WR1-level consistency. That type of volume and efficiency gives him one of the safest ceilings in the slate.

But the matchup makes this even better. Pittsburgh ranks fifth worst against opposing WR1s this year and has given up the third highest completion rate on throws of 10-plus yards over the last five games, a direct sweet spot for Chase’s route tree. This defense has repeatedly been burned deep by alpha receivers, even with their pass rush back at full strength. So in a game where Cincinnati ranks fourth highest in dropback rate during neutral game scripts, Chase is set for another double-digit target outing with multiple explosive-play chances. The Steelers can’t contain WR1s who win vertically, and Flacco’s volume guarantees opportunity. This number is too low for a wideout dominating usage and separation.

Noah Fant is trending toward one of his best usage weeks of the season. With Mike Gesicki out, Fant’s routes jumped to 51 percent of team dropbacks, and he continues to average over four receptions per game over the last few contests. His chemistry within this offense has been consistent, and now with backup tight end Tanner Hudson in concussion protocol, that route share is likely to climb even higher.

Pittsburgh’s defense has been vulnerable to tight ends all year, ranking fourth highest in yards per target allowed to the position. They’ve also surrendered top-five yards after catch to tight ends over the last month, struggling to tackle in the middle of the field. With Cincinnati expected to lean on quick passes against pressure, his short-area routes and athletic ability fit perfectly into the game plan. The opportunity spike plus a favorable matchup make this projection soft. Even with modest volume, Fant’s route rate and efficiency combine for an easy path to clear 31.5 receiving yards. In an offense built on timing and short throws, this play looks efficient, safe, and undervalued.

Aaron Rodgers continues to deliver quietly elite efficiency, ranking sixth in passing points per attempt despite operating one of the lowest-volume passing attacks in football. He’s not throwing forty times per game, but when he does, it counts. His efficiency per throw ranks near the top of the league, and that’s exactly what matters against this defense.

Cincinnati’s pass rush is falling apart. They’re 28th in pressure rate, 28th in yards per attempt allowed, and 24th in touchdown rate allowed, giving opposing quarterbacks clean pockets and red-zone success all season. Without Trey Hendrickson, their pass-rush win rate drops into the bottom five. When unpressured, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 8.2 yards per attempt and a 6.5 percent touchdown rate, both bottom-five defensive marks in the league. When Rodgers has time, he’s surgical. This is exactly the type of matchup he exploits, a vulnerable secondary with no consistent push. Expect another efficient outing with multiple scoring drives through the air. This number sits too low for a quarterback this precise facing a defense this leaky.

Joe Flacco’s return has stabilized the Bengals’ passing game. In two starts, he’s thrown two or more touchdowns each time, completing nearly 65 percent of his passes while keeping the offense on schedule. His sack rate of 2.2 percent is the lowest among any Cincinnati starter this season, and he’s been turnover-free through two games. Cincinnati’s play calling has shifted too: they’re throwing on 65 percent of plays in neutral game scripts, the fourth highest rate in the league, making this one of the most pass-heavy teams under his leadership.

The matchup amplifies that advantage. Pittsburgh has allowed two or more passing touchdowns in every game but one this season, even with improved health on defense. Their pressure looks can cause problems for inexperienced quarterbacks, but they’ve still surrendered a top-five touchdown rate when blitzing, leaving open windows behind the rush. When you combine volume, decision-making, and defensive tendencies, this sets up perfectly. Flacco’s getting the ball out fast, attacking space behind pressure, and running one of the most pass-centric game plans in football. Expect him to hit another multi-touchdown performance; this number should sit closer to two flat.

Kenneth Gainwell continues to be a steady anchor of Philadelphia’s passing attack. He caught six passes last week, tied for the team lead, while maintaining a 42 percent route rate and 34.5 percent snap share, both steady indicators of trust from the coaching staff. He’s also been the go-to back in two-minute offenses, where his quick hands and route reliability keep drives alive.

What makes this play stand out is that his role hasn’t changed even as other backs rotate. His route participation stayed the same after Jaylen Warren returned, showing that his pass-game usage is independent of game script. Over the last month, the Eagles rank top five in target rate to running backs, a trend that strengthens as defenses take away deep shots. This projection feels like his floor. Gainwell is getting schemed touches in passing situations, and his involvement stays constant regardless of score. This isn’t a boom-or-bust role; it’s built-in opportunity. Three catches should come naturally in any neutral game, making this number one of the safer plays of the slate.

Jaylen Warren’s efficiency keeps forcing its way into the Steelers’ offense. He played over 51 percent of snaps last week, his highest share since early in the season, and turned those touches into a season-high 52 rushing yards. Even while splitting carries, his burst and vision keep him near the top of the depth chart in actual productivity.

This matchup screams upside. Cincinnati’s defense has been shredded on the ground, allowing the second most rushing yards to running backs this year and ranking bottom three in yards per carry allowed over the last five games. Their front seven consistently loses leverage, and their tackling efficiency has dropped, making them one of the league’s most exploitable run defenses. With Warren controlling over half the snaps and maintaining about 47 percent of team rushes, efficiency alone should push him past this number. His yards-per-carry profile fits perfectly against this soft front, and the game script projects neutral, ideal for sustained ground volume. Expect Warren to clear 44.5 with ease and remind everyone who the more explosive back in Pittsburgh really is.

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That’s the list. Steelers–Bengals always turns into a brawl, lock in these edges before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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