ATL @ GB
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#5 - T. Kraft: O 46.5 Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Tucker Kraft draws a strong matchup against an Atlanta defense that's already been vulnerable to tight ends.
• Has been targeted 9 times through the first two games
• Falcons have allowed the 3rd-highest reception rate per target to tight ends at 92.3%
• Carolina tight ends combined for 5 catches, 50 yards and 2 touchdowns against Atlanta last week
Kraft's early-season involvement combined with Atlanta's struggles against the position gives him a strong opportunity to clear this number.
#4 - C. Watson: O 59.5 Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Christian Watson has the volume and big-play ability to take advantage of this Atlanta secondary.
• Ranks as the 6th-most targeted wide receiver in the NFL
• Atlanta has already allowed 8 completions of 20+ yards, 5th-most in the league
• Exploded for 147 receiving yards against Minnesota in Week 1
OddsJam is showing one of the stronger +EV gaps on Watson, and the shrinking target tree only makes it more interesting. With Jayden Reed out and nearly 74% of Green Bay's targets already going to wide receivers, Watson should have plenty of opportunities.
#3 - M. Golden: O 3.5 Receptions (Tail best line)
Matthew Golden's target volume through two weeks makes four catches a very reachable number.
• Has been targeted 18 times this season, 7th-most among wide receivers
• Has cleared this number in both games
• Atlanta has forced the 3rd-most targets to wide receivers this season
Golden is already commanding consistent volume, and this matchup should give Green Bay another reason to keep feeding its receivers.
#2 - B. Robinson: O 4.5 Receptions (Tail best line)
Bijan Robinson continues to be heavily involved as a receiver out of Atlanta's backfield.
• Falcons lead the NFL with a 32% target share to running backs
• Averaging 5.5 receptions per game through the first two weeks
• Has averaged 4.9 receptions per game when playing with Michael Penix Jr.
Green Bay just allowed Breece Hall to catch 5 passes for 63 yards, giving Bijan another favorable spot to stay involved through the air.
#1 - J. Love: O 18.5 Passing Cmp (Tail best line)
Jordan Love's early-season passing volume gives him plenty of opportunity to get to 19 completions.
• Averaging 35.5 pass attempts per game, 7th-most in the NFL
• Atlanta has allowed 23.5 completions per game, 6th-most in the league
• Falcons have forced the 5th-most quarterback dropbacks this season
Love's volume already puts this number within reach, and OddsJam's Sharp Money tool is showing market interest here too. Atlanta's ability to force opposing quarterbacks into volume makes this a strong setup.
That’s the list. Week 3 kicks off at Lambeau with Falcons vs. Packers on Thursday Night Football, and we’ve got five spots to attack before kickoff.
See you out there,
-Joe