DET @ BUF
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#6 - DJ Moore: O 4.5 Receptions (Tail best line)
DJ Moore immediately established himself as a major part of Buffalo's passing attack.
• Caught 5 of 8 targets in his Buffalo debut, already clearing this number
• Saw 28.6% of the team's targets, ranking WR11 in Week 1
• Was targeted on 30.8% of his routes, nearly double his 15.3% rate with Chicago last season
OddsJam flagged this one as massively +EV before I dug into the usage numbers, and it was even more obvious. Detroit just allowed a league-high 20 receptions for 293 yards to New Orleans' receivers.
#5 - K. Shakir: O 44.5 Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Khalil Shakir's Week 1 usage gives us another encouraging sign heading into this matchup.
• Caught 4 of 6 targets for 50 yards in Week 1
• Was targeted on 30% of his routes
• Detroit allowed 127 receiving yards to slot receivers last week, 2nd-most in the NFL
Shakir operates primarily from the slot/interior, putting him in a great position to take advantage of an area Detroit just struggled to defend.
#4 - A. St. Brown: O 7.5 Receptions (Tail best line)
Amon-Ra St. Brown enters Week 2 after commanding ridiculous volume in the opener.
• Led the NFL with 14 targets in Week 1
• Caught 10 passes, already comfortably clearing this number
• Was the first read on 48% of Detroit's plays, 3rd-highest among WRs in Week 1
Buffalo just allowed Nico Collins to catch 7 passes on 10 targets, and St. Brown's massive target share gives him a strong path to eight catches.
#3 - D. Kincaid: O 3.5 Receptions (Tail best line)
Dalton Kincaid is coming off a monster Week 1 and now draws another favorable matchup.
• Caught 5 passes for 130 yards against Houston
• Grabbed 4 receptions in his only previous matchup against Detroit
• Lions gave up 15 targets to tight ends last week, the most in the NFL
Kincaid needs just four catches, and both his Week 1 usage and Detroit's struggles against tight ends point toward another productive game.
#2 - J. Allen: O 248.5 Passing Yards (Tail best line)
Josh Allen enters Week 2 with everything pointing toward another high-volume passing performance.
• Threw for 334 yards against one of the NFL's top defenses in Houston
• Threw for 362 yards in his last matchup against Detroit
• Lions just surrendered 410 passing yards to Tyler Shough
Allen has cleared this number in four straight games dating back to last season. Sharp Money on OddsJam moved on this fast, and the expected shootout environment helps explain why.
That’s the list. Week 2 kicks off with Lions vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football, and we’ve got five spots to attack in what could be one of the highest-scoring games of the week.
See you out there,
-Joe
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