TB @ DAL
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#5 - C. Godwin: O 28+ Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Chris Godwin continues to produce above this number, and Dallas gives him another favorable matchup.
• Has cleared this line in 3 of 4 games this season
• Averaging 35.5 receiving yards per game
• Dallas allows 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 3rd-highest in the NFL
Dallas also allows 252 passing yards per game and the 5th-highest explosive-play rate, giving Godwin multiple paths to clear 28 yards.
#4 - J. Daniels: O 44+ Rush Yards (Tail best line)
Jalon Daniels gets one of the best matchups in football for quarterback rushing production.
• Dallas allows an NFL-high 47 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks
• Also allows an NFL-high 6.8 QB rushing attempts per game
• Daniels is averaging 55 rushing yards over his last 3 games
OddsJam is showing a strong +EV edge on Daniels, and his 25% scramble rate when pressured sets up perfectly against a Dallas defense generating pressure at the 8th-highest rate.
#3 - T. Goodson: U 17+ Rush Yards (Tail best line)
Tyler Goodson gets a brutal matchup against one of the league's toughest run defenses.
• Tampa Bay allows just 62.5 rushing yards per game to running backs, 3rd-fewest in the NFL
• Allows only 3.3 yards per carry to running backs, 3rd-lowest
• RotoWire's hit rate on this line sits at 87% to the under
Tampa Bay also allows the 5th-fewest RB rushing attempts per game, leaving Goodson with very little margin to get to 17 yards.
#2 - C. Lamb: O 6+ Receptions (Tail best line)
CeeDee Lamb continues to command some of the best receiving volume in football.
• Leads the NFL with 37 receptions, averaging 9.3 per game
• Owns a 30.7% target share, 2nd-highest among wide receivers
• Has cleared this number in 3 straight games, averaging 10.7 catches during that stretch
Tampa Bay allows 22.3 completions per game, and Lamb's elite target share gives him a strong path to another high-volume performance.
#1 - B. Irving: O 52+ Rush Yards (Tail best line)
Bucky Irving continues to control Tampa Bay's backfield and gets a favorable matchup against Dallas.
• Owns 77.8% of the team's running back carries
• Averaging 65.3 rushing yards over his last 3 games
• Dallas allows 4.7 yards per carry, 8th-highest in the NFL
Dallas also owns the 4th-highest missed-tackle rate in football, and OddsJam's Sharp Money tool is picking up action on Irving. The workload and matchup both point toward another 50+ yard game.
That’s the list. Week 5 kicks off in Dallas with Bucs vs. Cowboys on Thursday Night Football, and we’ve got five spots to attack before kickoff.
See you out there,
-Joe