Week 1
Yo! Real quick, before we get to the picks →
Novig users are 10x more likely to profit compared to competitors.
Same games, better odds, built only for sports.
New to Novig? Deposit $10, get $25.
Now let's eat.
#6 - Z. Flowers: O 64.5 Receiving (Tail best line)
Zay Flowers enters Week 1 with a favorable matchup after a strong finish last season.
• Ranked 6th in the NFL in receiving yards, averaging 71.1 per game
• Cleared this in 4 of his final 5 games while averaging 88.8 yards
• Colts allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to wide receivers last season
The matchup and Flowers' consistent production create another strong opportunity to clear this number.
#5 - O. Hampton: O 65.5 Rushing (Tail best line)
Omarion Hampton is positioned for a heavy workload in a favorable game environment.
• Chargers are 10.5-point favorites, the largest spread on the Week 1 board
• Projects as the clear-cut workhorse back right out of the gate
• Cardinals allowed 113.3 rushing yards per game to RBs last season, 4th-most in the NFL
The Sharp Money tool on OddsJam moved on this one early, and the game script helps explain why. With Los Angeles heavily favored, Hampton should have plenty of opportunities to pile up carries.
#4 - J. Williams: O 73.5 Rushing (Tail best line)
Javonte Williams enters Week 1 with a strong workload and an excellent matchup.
• Ranked 7th among NFL running backs in snap percentage last season at 68.8%
• Averaged 75 rushing yards per game last season
• Giants allowed 116.7 rushing yards per game to RBs last year, 2nd-most in the NFL
After rushing for 97 yards against New York last season, Williams is in another favorable spot to clear this line.
#3 - C. McCaffrey: O 4.5 Rec (Tail best line)
OddsJam flagged this as one of the biggest +EV numbers on the board, and McCaffrey's usage makes it look even softer.
• Ranked 1st among RBs in target share last season at 24.7%
• Averaged 8 receptions per game in two matchups against the Rams last season
• Rams allowed 83 receptions to running backs last year, 7th-most in the NFL
With a 48.5 game total and an upgraded Rams pass rush, McCaffrey should have plenty of opportunities underneath.
#2 - D. Smith: O 66.5 Receiving (Tail best line)
DeVonta Smith enters the season with an expanded role in Philadelphia's passing attack.
• Ranked 17th among wide receivers with a 24.3% target share last season despite operating as the WR2
• Moves into the WR1 role with A.J. Brown out
• Commanders allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to wide receivers last season
The increased opportunity and favorable matchup set Smith up for a strong Week 1.
That’s the list. Week 1 is finally here, and we’ve got five spots to attack right out of the gate.
See you out there,
-Joe
P.S. copy proven winners with us in Skool every day. Profit in your first 90 days, or your money back.