Way-Too-Early
What’s up! Real quick, before we get to the picks →
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In there, I copy a small group of proven winners on prediction markets and post their exact plays. You tail in a couple of minutes a day, zero research.
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Now let's eat.
#6 - B. Robinson: O 1 TD (Tail best line)
Bijan Robinson enters Week 2 with another great opportunity to find the end zone.
• Went for 173 total yards and a touchdown on 29 touches against Pittsburgh
• Scored 2 touchdowns in his last matchup against Carolina
• Panthers just allowed 4 rushing touchdowns to RBs and 6 total touchdowns, both the most in the NFL last week
Bijan's massive workload against a defense that continues to surrender touchdowns makes him a strong candidate to score again.
#5 - D. Kincaid: O 3.5 Receptions (Tail best line)
Dalton Kincaid is coming off a monster performance and now draws a favorable matchup against Detroit.
• Caught 5 passes for 130 yards against Houston last week
• Grabbed 4 receptions in his only previous matchup against the Lions
• Detroit gave up 15 targets to tight ends last week, the most in the NFL
OddsJam flagged this as one of the biggest +EV numbers on the board, and Kincaid's involvement makes the number look even softer. He needs just four catches to clear.
#4 - D. Montgomery: O 59.5 Rushing Yards (Tail best line)
David Montgomery immediately showed in Week 1 that he's going to handle a serious workload.
• Ran for 60 yards on 20 carries in the opener
• Cleared this number against Cincinnati last season with 64 yards despite operating as the RB2
• Bengals allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL in 2025
With 20 carries already under his belt, Montgomery should have the volume to take advantage of this matchup.
#3 - J. Allen: O 248.5 Passing Yards (Tail best line)
Josh Allen enters Week 2 on a four-game streak of clearing this passing number.
• Threw for 334 yards against one of the NFL's top defenses in Houston
• Threw for 362 yards in his last matchup against Detroit
• Lions just surrendered 410 passing yards to Tyler Shough
With DJ Moore adding another weapon to this offense, Allen has the firepower and matchup to put together another huge passing performance.
#2 - D. Henry: O 88.5 Rushing Yards (Tail best line)
Derrick Henry continues to put up ridiculous rushing numbers.
• Ran for 144 yards on 24 carries in Week 1
• Has cleared this projection in 6 straight games, averaging 135 rushing yards during that stretch
• New Orleans just surrendered 156 rushing yards to Jahmyr Gibbs
Sharp Money on OddsJam moved on this one fast, and Henry's recent workload helps explain why. Against a Saints defense that has faced the 2nd-most rushing attempts since last season, Henry should have another chance at a massive workload.
That’s the list. Week 1 is barely in the books, but we’re already looking ahead with five way-too-early picks for Week 2. Get these numbers while they’re still fresh.
See you out there,
-Joe
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