Way-Too-Early
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#4 - A. Jeanty: O 70.5 Rush Yards (Tail best line)
Ashton Jeanty's workload gives him a great opportunity to bounce back this week.
• Has already handled 44 rushing attempts through the first two weeks
• Averaging 85 rushing yards per game over his last 5 dating back to last season
• New Orleans has allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to running backs through two weeks
Jeanty managed only 48 yards last week, but the volume hasn't gone anywhere, making this a strong bounce-back spot.
#3 - G. Wilson: O 0.5 TDs (Tail best line)
Garrett Wilson has another favorable opportunity to find the end zone after scoring last week.
• Already has 14 targets through the first two games
• Found the end zone last week against Green Bay
• Detroit has allowed 6 passing touchdowns through two weeks, 2nd-most in the NFL
OddsJam is showing a strong +EV edge on Wilson, and his early-season target volume gives him plenty of opportunities to take advantage of a Detroit defense that's already struggling to keep receivers out of the end zone.
#2 - J. Herbert: O 228.5 Pass Yards (Tail best line)
Justin Herbert and the Chargers have disappointed offensively, but this matchup gives them a chance to get things going.
• Buffalo has allowed the 3rd-most passing yards and 2nd-most passing touchdowns in football
• Bills just surrendered 327 passing yards to Jared Goff on Thursday night
• Buffalo continues to create high-scoring game environments that force opposing quarterbacks to throw
Even with the Chargers' slow start, this matchup should give Herbert the volume he needs to get over 228.5 yards.
#1 - D. Kincaid: O 49.5 Rec Yards (Tail best line)
Dalton Kincaid looks like he's in the middle of a legitimate breakout.
• Has crushed this number in both games this season, averaging 113 receiving yards per game
• Ranks 4th among NFL tight ends in target share at 25%
• Chargers have allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to tight ends through two weeks
Kincaid's production is being backed up by elite usage, and OddsJam's Sharp Money tool is picking up action on this number as well. With a quarter of Buffalo's targets coming his way, 49.5 yards looks very reachable.
That’s the list. Week 2 is barely in the books, but we’re already looking ahead with four way-too-early picks for Week 3. Grab these numbers before the market has a chance to catch up.
See you out there,
-Joe